PUBLIC OPINION

Comparative data related to Slovene public opinion on NATO (1999 and 2001)

Threats to security

The perception of the sources of threats was put at the centre of the presentation of the results, as this determines the value of other factors (such as attitudes to defence spending, military integration, the priorities of the armed forces, etc.).

In the opinion of Slovenes, the following pose the greatest/smallest threat to Slovenia:

1999 (graded from 1 to 4) 2001 (graded from 1 to 4) 1 drugs, narcotics 3.46 1 drugs, narcotics 3.41 2 crime 3.46 2 crime 3.28 3 destruction of the environment 3.35 3 road accidents 3.24 4 unemployment 3.35 4 unemployment 3.14 5 low birth rate 3.39 5 destruction of the environment 3.07 6 economic problems 3.23 6 poverty 3.05 ~ ~ 17 terrorism 2.64 17 terrorism 2.09 ~ ~ 19 military threat from other countries 2.21 19 military threat from other countries 1.79

It is clear from the table that Slovene citizens do not feel under a military threat and that they are much more aware of non-military factors. Among them, threats relating to internal security, degradation of the environment and socio-economic security prevail. Perception of military threats ranked last out of the nineteen factors, while threats from terrorism took seventeenth place. It is also interesting that the average value of the sources of threats as perceived by the Slovene public was higher in the summer of 1999 than in the autumn of 2001, even though the latter poll was conducted directly after the terrorist attacks by extreme Islamic groups on targets in the USA.

Trust in institutions involved in international security

1999 (graded from 1 to 4) 2001 (graded from 1 to 4) United Nations 2.34 United Nations 2.60 Council of Europe 2.46 Council of Europe 2.44 NATO 2.43 NATO 2.38 OSCE 2.45 OSCE 2.36 EU 2.41 EU 2.33

Among the institutions involved in collective security, defence and stability in the world and/or Europe, in 2001 the public had the greatest trust in the United Nations, the Council of Europe and NATO. But looked at overall, the public only has a partial trust in these institutions, as shown by the average grades on the scale, which is from 1 to 4.

Joining NATO

The respondents' answers to the question as to whether they agree with the endeavours of the Slovene government and Parliament to enable Slovenia to become a full member of NATO were as follows (in %):

1999 2001 agree 56 agree 53 do not agree 16 do not agree 24 do not know 28 do not know 23

Other research by Slovene and foreign research institutions showed that before the Madrid NATO Summit in July 1997, on average 60% of the Slovene public supported Slovenia's accession to NATO. Approximately a fifth of respondents was against NATO membership, and a fifth was undecided. After Madrid, support fell by an average seven or eight percent. At first, only the number of undecided increased; but later, particularly in 2001, opposition grew and in January it exceeded 30% for the first time (Politbarometer). The data in the table above confirms this trend.

Comparative results relating to approval in 2001 for the efforts on the part of the Slovene government and Parliament towards Slovenia becoming a full member of the EU, as opposed to NATO (in %):

NATO EU agree 53 agree 57 do not agree 24 do not agree 20 do not know 23 do not know 23

The table shows a comparison of the attitude of the Slovene public to NATO and EU membership. Support for EU membership is slightly higher, and it is interesting that the structure of support is different. The overlap of both groups of supporters is 78 percent (i.e. 78% of those supporting EU membership are also in favour of NATO membership). Statistically, there is a high level of correlation of support for Slovenia becoming a member of the EU and NATO. But overall, Slovenia's joining the EU is supported by slightly better educated people, with a slightly better socio-economic status and from slightly more urban areas, whilst Slovenia's NATO membership is supported by people with slightly lower education, who belong to the middle social classes and appear further to the right of the political spectrum. Women do not oppose NATO membership in considerably greater numbers, although there are more undecided among women than men. Another characteristic is that there is a positive correlation between being better informed about NATO and supporting membership of this organisation - those who know more about NATO are more likely to support Slovenia joining it and vice versa.

A referendum on Slovenia joining NATO

Answers to the question as to who should decide on the issue of Slovenia's accession to NATO - the Parliament or the people of Slovenia - were as follows (in %):

1999 2001 the people at a referendum 77 the people at a referendum 73 Parliament 14 Parliament 18 undecided 9 undecided 9

A large majority believes that the decision on Slovenia's membership of NATO should be taken by the people at a referendum, and this has also been the viewpoint of most of the political parties in Parliament in recent months.

Possible date of joining NATO

Answers to the question: "Slovenia is trying to join NATO as soon as possible. When, in your opinion will Slovenia actually become a NATO member?" were as follows (in %):

by 2004 24 between 2005 and 2008 33 after 2008 8 it will never become a NATO member 4 do not know, cannot say, undecided 31

Assessments of the possible date of Slovenia's accession to NATO are quite realistic, even though as yet there has been no invitation issued to the candidate countries, Slovenia among them.

Support for Slovenia taking part in peace operations (in %)

1999* 2001 Yes, I am in favour 78 Yes, I am in favour 69 No, I am not in favour 6 No, I am not in favour 17 Don't know, undecided 15 Don't know 14

* the question was worded differently

A large majority of the Slovene public is in favour of the Slovene army and other elements of the national security system taking part in international peace operations.

Form of participation in international peace operations (in %)

1999 2001 Slovenia's professional soldiers 67 Slovenia's professional soldiers 68 civilian personnel 53 civilian personnel 51 volunteers from the ranks of those serving military service 54 volunteers from the ranks of those serving military service 55 volunteers from the reserve list 46 volunteers from the reserve list 49 financially or materially 40 financially or materially 43 by allowing the passage of peace-keeping forces across Slovene territory and through Slovenia's airspace 66 by allowing the passage of peace-keeping forces across Slovene territory and through Slovenia's airspace 65 police units 36 police units 51

Approval of the Slovene army participating in operations outside Slovenia (2001) (in %)

Type of task Yes No Don't know humanitarian operations, unarmed 84 9 8 peace-keeping operations, where weapons can be used only in self-defence 74 15 11 in combat peace-making operations 39 46 15

The tables above show that the public mainly supports the participation of the Slovene army in peace and humanitarian operations where the use of weapons is limited to self-defence. It should be mostly professional soldiers who take part in these operations.

Level of support for defence spending (in %)

1999 2001 higher than it has been 8 higher than it has been 10 the same as it has been 41 the same as it has been 41 lower than it has been 32 lower than it has been 31 don't know, cannot say 19 don't know, cannot say 18

The spending issue is linked to Slovenia's NATO membership, as the general belief is that defence spending would increase considerably due to NATO membership, but the experts do not fully agree with this belief. The results show that a great majority of people wish to keep defence spending at the same level as it is now or even lower.

Source of data: Defence Studies Research Centre, Social Studies Institute at the University of Ljubljana, January 2002.