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Position of Slovenes concerning accession to the European Union and NATO

Public Opinion Research - Slovene Public Opinion 2002

The Centre for Public Opinion Research and Mass Communications at the Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Ljubljana, carried out field research from 23 May to 26 June 2002 entitled "Position of Slovenes concerning accession to the European Union and NATO", within the framework of Slovene public opinion research. The research was carried out on a sample of 1711 adult citizens (1123 actually polled) in 100 polling districts in Slovenia.

A significant part of the research related to a range of topical social, economic, cultural and political questions, and focused on understanding the circumstances and course of Slovenia's (non-)accession to the European Union and NATO. The research more broadly also covered questions and dilemmas in connection with a possible invitation to join and Slovenia's membership of NATO. Data show that people's attitude to NATO is multi-faceted and that reasons for acceptance and rejection are intertwined.

In the part of the research concerning NATO, the researchers ascertained:

  1. How well informed the population of Slovenia is about NATO;
  2. standpoint in connection with the course and dynamics of deciding on membership;
  3. views on how threatened Slovenia is and aspects of such threat;
  4. views on the effect of membership of NATO on threats posed to Slovenia;
  5. views of the role of the Slovene army in connection with NATO;
  6. views on the historical and actual role of NATO and possible effects on the position of Slovenia;
  7. standpoint on the advantage/non-advantage of NATO membership and forecasts of the behaviour of those polled in a referendum on NATO membership.

The results show that

  1. The proportion of those informed about the course of deciding on NATO membership is satisfactory (40.5%), although the majority (50.6%) still do not feel sufficiently informed.

    The main channels of information about NATO are: television (81.6%), printed media (54.5%), radio informative programmes (47.6%), followed by acquaintances and friends and the internet.

  2. The majority of those polled (70.8%) believe that a decision on membership should be made by referendum. In relation to the appropriate moment for a referendum, opinion is split: slightly more than half of those who expressed an opinion (39.4%) believe that the referendum should be held after an invitation, but almost the same number (38.1%) think that it should be before a possible invitation for Slovenia to join NATO. A large majority of respondents (78.1%) expressed an intention to take part in such a referendum. In the last year, since the last assessment, the majority of respondents (66.8%) had not changed their opinion about NATO; a tenth (10.9%) now supported membership less than previously, a further tenth (9.5%) are undecided in relation to the question, and 2.9% are more in favour of membership.

  3. The inhabitants of Slovenia for the most part do not see military sources of threat. Only 4.6% of respondents see a threat from neighbouring countries, 6.3% from other countries, and 9.8% because of military conflicts on the territory of former Yugoslavia.

    More pronounced is the feeling of threat expressed by respondents because of refugees (20.1%), the spread of international terrorism (22.6%) and above all, because of drugs trafficking (50.5%). All the remaining perceived threats belong in the social, economic and political context (e.g., unemployment and economic stagnation 43.9%)

  4. The perceived effects of NATO membership are for the most part positive from the point of view of a feeling of being threatened. The threat from other countries would be appreciably reduced (42.2%), from neighbouring countries (40.0%) and from the territory of former Yugoslavia (36.3%). Only from the point of view of international terrorism as a source of threat is the reverse impression created: there are more of those who believe that membership of NATO would mean an increase of threat (30.2%) and not a reduction (21.4%).

  5. In relation to the dilemma of whether costs of the army would be the same or higher, opinion is equal. Costs with membership of NATO would increase (72.7%).

    The majority of those questioned (60.1%) support transition to a professional army: slightly over a fifth explicitly do not support such a concept (21.5%). The majority do not see a necessary connection between transition to a professional army and membership of NATO.

    The respondents almost unanimously (83.4%) support involvement of the Slovene army for humanitarian purposes and in peace-keeping operations (74.2%). They are more reserved about the involvement of the Slovene army in military operations for establishing peace (39.1%).

  6. The respondents recognise a positive historical role of NATO in the democratic institutionalisation of modern Europe, they confirm a positive role of NATO in resolution of the crisis on the territory of former Yugoslavia, confirm the finding that Slovenia cannot guarantee the same level of security etc. without NATO membership. However, they are critical in the their judgement of the dominant role of the USA in NATO, and in an assessment of the financial consequences of membership, thus increased costs.

  7. The general judgement of the public in relation to membership of NATO can be based on two indicators: the question of whether it "would be advantageous or non-advantageous to Slovenia to become a full member of NATO" and the question concerning behaviour in a referendum in connection with membership.

    In relation to a judgement of advantage/non-advantage, 40.1% are of the opinion that it would be advantageous; 27.8% of those polled believe that it would not be advantageous, while 32.1% remain undefined about this question.

    The judgement based on the referendum question is similar to the opinion on the advantage: 42.4% of respondents would certainly or very probably vote "for", 31.5% would certainly or very probably vote "against", and slightly more than a quarter (26.2%) of respondents remain undecided about the question.

    A survey of opinions in relation to education, age, qualifications and other characteristics of respondents and their political affiliation shows that an opinion "for" prevails among all observed groups, whether highly educated, among the young, women and the employed in general, among students and school pupils, old age pensioners etc. A higher share of those against NATO stands out among those with higher education, respondents from 31 to 45, those holding religious beliefs, businesspersons, the unemployed etc. In relation to party political preference, adherents of the Slovene National Party (52% against, 29% for), the United List of Social Democrats (45.6% against, 34.2% for) and the Slovene Youth Party (42.9% against, 37% for) stand out with a prevailing standpoint against NATO.

On the basis of the data obtained, and analyses carried out to date, and taking into account the opinions of respondents, it can be stated that in relation to conditions at the time of the research, the Slovene public would confirm NATO membership with the required majority at a referendum.

Source: Slovene public opinion research, Position of Slovenes towards accession of Slovenia to the EU and NATO, Faculty of Social Sciences, Centre for Public Opinion Research and Mass Communications, September 2002.


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